Germany was once seen as Europe’s anchor of stability. Now Friedrich Merz’s own party is discussing whether the chancellor should go after little more than a year in office.
BERLIN — German Chancellor Friedrich Merz doesn’t seem to think his job will be in danger when he gets back from his summer holiday.
“I’m assuming that things will have calmed down a bit by September,” he said last week, after internal dissent over his handling of a cabinet reshuffle boiled over.
He may be underestimating the pressure building within his own party.
Ahead of crucial regional elections in September — in which the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has a realistic chance of taking power in a German state for the first time — there is increasingly open discussion of a Kanzlertausch, or chancellor swap, in the fall.
Public criticism has mainly come from those ousted from government in the reshuffle. But behind the scenes, a growing number of politicians from Merz’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) are discussing what would, by German standards, be a remarkable scenario: replacing the leader after little more than a year in the job.
Europe’s biggest economy has long been one of its most stable democracies, with no history of rattling through leaders like postwar Italy or post-Brexit Britain.
But the expected success of the AfD, in elections in which the CDU is expected to lose ground, is upending the country’s conventional political dynamics.
The theory behind a Kanzlertausch is that the conservatives will need to stem the fallout from the eastern elections and give themselves a boost by replacing a leader unable to shake his rock-bottom ratings.
But the stakes are high. The AfD — now the most popular party in national polls — would seek to capitalize on further coalition unrest. Replacing a chancellor years before the end of his term would mean venturing into largely uncharted political territory.
Only three sitting chancellors have been succeeded by a politician from the same political camp in postwar Germany: in 1963, when the 87-year-old Konrad Adenauer resigned to make way for Ludwig Erhard; in 1966, after Erhard’s coalition collapsed; and in 1974, when Social Democrat Willy Brandt stood down over an espionage scandal.
The current Kanzlertausch scenario — in which Hendrik Wüst, the premier of the western state of North Rhine-Westphalia, has emerged as Merz’s most likely successor — has been widely discussed in German media, including in the latest Der Spiegel cover story headlined “Palace Revolt.”
Conservative politicians confirmed the internal debate to POLITICO, speaking on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the discussions.
The growing discontent, they said, reflected declining trust in the chancellor’s statesmanship and his expected inability to keep the party together if the AfD takes power in September.
Polls show that the AfD could win an outright majority in Saxony-Anhalt on Sept. 6, while it is poised to win in Mecklenburg–Western Pomerania and do well in Berlin on Sept. 20.
A further fear is that individual CDU politicians in eastern Germany might lend their support to an AfD-led state government after the elections — breaking Merz’s long-standing pledge never to allow the far right into government.
One called the debate “speculative” for now and said that the aftermath of the elections in eastern Germany would be “decisive” for the chancellor’s future.
They also stressed that, for now, no senior figure has publicly spoken out against Merz.
Yet the mounting unease is conspicuous in a party usually known for its discipline.
Keeping a cool head
If Merz were forced to go, that would seriously disrupt Germany’s consensus-based political system. The move would come less than two years after the previous center-left coalition fell apart and could trigger a snap election.
Kai Arzheimer, a political science professor at the University of Mainz, said the fragmentation of Germany’s party system — where centrist parties must forge sometimes awkward coalitions to keep increasingly popular fringe parties from power — has triggered a shift.
“Compared with the 1970s and 1980s, Germany has experienced relatively little political stability for quite some time now,” he said. “However, by the standards of what has become the norm in many other European countries, one could also say that Germany has simply arrived where others have been for a long time.”
Appeals for restraint have meanwhile begun to emerge from across the political spectrum.
“A Union that is tearing itself apart is of no use to anyone in the democratic center,” said Christiane Hoffmann, a former spokesperson for center-left Chancellor Olaf Scholz, in a lengthy post on X about the current debate.
“A little stability, please,” she demanded. “There’s just headless grumbling and bleating, with no one knowing where it’s all headed. Europe is on fire. Could a few people please keep a cool head?”
How a swap could unfold
The least disruptive route would be for Merz to step aside voluntarily, allowing his successor to be elected by majority vote.
If Merz refuses to go, his opponents would have to oust him through a constructive vote of no confidence, simultaneously electing his successor. Such an extraordinary parliamentary maneuver would risk ripping apart the governing coalition of Merz’s CDU, its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), and the Social Democrats.
For now, Merz continues to enjoy the backing of leading conservative figures.
“I am firmly convinced that Friedrich Merz will remain chancellor,” Markus Söder, the powerful state premier of Bavaria and CSU leader, said in an interview with public broadcaster ARD over the weekend.
“It would throw the conservatives into complete disarray,” Söder said of a potential swap.
“Moreover, it could even lead to new elections. And anyone who wants new elections now — in a situation like this, after such a lead-up — is only promoting one thing: bringing radicals to power. That is why my urgent advice is to focus on the work at hand and spend less time speculating behind the scenes.”
At national level, POLITICO’s Poll of Polls puts the AfD as the single most popular party with 28 percent support, with Merz’s conservatives on 21 percent.
At the same time, only 13 percent of Germans are satisfied with Merz’s performance, according to the latest benchmark ARD-DeutschlandTrend poll released last month. That is the lowest rating for a sitting chancellor in the survey’s nearly 30-year history.
Merz’s rock-bottom ratings reflect disappointment over his efforts to revive Germany’s ailing economy and public skepticism over far-reaching pension and health care reforms that will be difficult to implement and are expected to cost the average voter money.
For now, Merz’s most viable political strategy appears to be appealing to politicians’ risk aversion in an effort to preserve what remains of Germany’s reputation for political stability.
“I can’t imagine many people within the conservative camp saying: ‘This is the solution, and we’re willing to take any risk in the hope that we might then do better in the polls,’” said Arzheimer, the political science professor. “That would be a completely crazy idea.”