The Holborn and St. Pancras by-election will be high stakes for both the ruling Labour Party and its left-wing rivals in the Green Party.
LONDON — Keir Starmer’s old seat in the Commons is up for grabs. Zack Polanski is throwing everything at turning the Labour stronghold of Holborn and St. Pancras green.
The leader of the left-wing populist Green Party is almost certain to be selected to stand in the Oct. 8 contest Thursday night, and activists have already flooded constituents with leaflets — with Polanski claiming they delivered 80,000 in just two hours Sunday.
Labour is mounting its defense. Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband — a popular figure on the Labour left who fronted a new set of trade sanctions on Israel this week — has already visited the seat, delivering a message of hope to Labour canvassers days after the former British prime minister announced he was standing down.
Holborn and St. Pancras has had a Labour MP since its creation in 1983. The Greens would need to overturn Starmer’s 11,572 vote majority.
For the two main parties in contention in the race to replace Starmer, there is a lot at stake.
What’s at stake for Labour?
This is Andy Burnham’s first test in a parliamentary by-election since becoming prime minister over the summer. For Labour, holding onto Holborn and St. Pancras would send a message that Labour’s image has been successfully divorced from Starmer’s unpopularity. It would also be an encouraging sign voters have accepted him as the new prime minister and are prepared to buy into his plan for government.
The selection on Wednesday night of Camden Council Leader Sagal Abdi-Wali as the Labour candidate — who came to the U.K. as a refugee from Somalia — could also help the party’s chances.
Reform UK spokesperson Zia Yusuf attacked Abdi-Wali’s background when she emerged as the frontrunner, and Labour will likely make the argument for progressive voters to back Abdi-Wali in a show of strength against Nigel Farage’s party.
However, losing a seat that has been deemed safe for so long would be damaging for both Burnham and the party, as it would suggest that the reputational damage Labour suffered under Starmer had stuck.
Sending such a high-profile party figure as the foreign secretary to address campaigners, while canvassers have already hit the streets, is a telling sign in a seat that historically should be a slam dunk for anyone wearing a red rosette.
What’s at stake for Greens?
A win for the Greens could be significant for two reasons. First, if Polanski wins the nomination to be the party’s candidate, it would put party leader in the House of Commons. It would allow them to argue the party still has momentum and has not peaked.
The Gorton and Denton victory in February was the first time the Greens had got an MP into parliament via a by-election. But since Burnham took office, Polanski has had more difficulty cutting through, while a so-called “Burnham bounce” has hit the Greens’ poll ratings.
Green candidate Geraldine Coggins came a disappointing third in the Manchester mayoral election in July, despite a significant ground and social media campaign by the party.
However, a win in London could revitalize the party and show Burnham that he is still at risk of hemorrhaging left-wing support to the Greens unless he listens to certain demands — such as the public ownership of water, a wealth tax, and rent controls.
The fight
Holborn and St. Pancras has never previously been fought as a two-horse race between Labour and the Greens.
Back in 2024, the Greens did not make a big play for the seat. During that race, it was independent candidate Andrew Feinstein — who later went on to be involved with Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana’s Your Party project — who posed the biggest threat to Starmer.
Feinstein ran on a pro-Gaza, anti-austerity ticket, and managed to make a dent in the then-PM’s majority, winning 18.9% of the vote.
Feinstein will not run this time, which could mean that his support transfers to the Greens, rather than Labour.
Even then, combined Green and Feinstein support totaled 29%, compared to Starmer’s 49%, at the last general election. Moreover, this time they will not be able to present themselves as a protest vote against Starmer personally.
It would help the Greens if university students are back before the vote as there are dozens of private and university-run accommodation buildings in the areas. But the short election timetable means most will not have moved in before September 22 — the deadline to register to vote.
There’s also a large Muslim community in the seat — around 20% — which both parties will want to attract.
In 2024, the war in Gaza was a major issue that pushed voters away from Labour. Burnham has said that the party’s position under Starmer was wrong, and is taking a stronger stance against the Israeli government. Restrictions on buying goods made in Jewish settlements in the Israeli-occupied West Bank were announced Tuesday.
The battle lines
The by-election might become a battle of competing national visions. Green supporters argue that Burnham will be prime minister regardless of the outcome, and that having Polanski as an MP will add to pressure on the government in parliament from the left.
Meanwhile, Labour is selling Burnham’s vision for the future. “We can go out in this by-election and really talk with pride about what Andy’s new government in doing,” Miliband told campaigners last weekend. “He has a big argument about how the country needs to change; now it’s up to us in Holborn and St. Pancras to win back the progressive voters.”
Abdi-Wali told the Camden New Journal in August that she thought Starmer should not step down as MP and described him as “really inspirational.”
The constituency faces a number of specific local challenges. Despite this area of north London often being associated with liberal elite circles, the area is grappling with a housing crisis, high levels of deprivation, and more than a decade of chaos from the stalled HS2 project.
Candidates will have to explain on the doorstep how they would change any of this if elected. Those details may emerge in coming weeks, and crucially during a hustings. But for now, it seems the first stage of battle will be over who can sell the most convincing message of hope.