Britain’s centrist force is coy about reentering government after a previous stint ended catastrophically.
BRIGHTON, England — The Liberal Democrats want to defeat Nigel Farage — just don’t mention working with Labour to do it.
The third-largest party in Westminster has made opposing Reform UK central to its annual conference by the English coast this week. Yet what that actually might entail has been conspicuously absent from the discussion in Brighton.
Neither Andy Burnham’s ruling Labour Party or Farage’s right-wing force — currently a close first and second in opinion polls — is on course to win a majority at the next general election, due by August 2029. It means both could be looking for a coalition partner.
Lib Dem leader Ed Davey — who addresses the party faithful Tuesday — told ITV News on Monday he believes there is likely to be a hung parliament next time around. And he has already talked up the threat of a right-wing pact, warning that Farage and Conservative boss Kemi Badenoch could turn Britain into a “Trump-satellite state” — despite both of their repeated protestations that this isn’t on the cards.
An “orange wall” of Lib Dem MPs “will not let [Farage and Badenoch] pass,” Davey has said.
The subtext is that the Lib Dems will do whatever it takes to keep Reform’s hands off power — and in the U.K.’s first-past-the-post electoral system, that would most likely mean propping up a minority Labour administration.
“Labour is open to working with us,” claimed one Lib Dem MP, citing Burnham and Davey’s collegiate relationship at prime minister’s questions and work on social care, though they were coy about whether that means in a future formal coalition when pushed.
At least five other Lib Dems MPs POLITICO spoke with were also reluctant to discuss the prospect of a coalition with Labour.
And while the Lib Dems are keen to show they would like to be in government again, it seems they would rather leave the realities of how they get there below the radar for now.
Scars on their back
Mention of a coalition often sparks fear into the heart of a Lib Dem because of how the last one ended.
“We got hammered in 2015,” a second Lib Dem MP said, recalling how the party crashed from 57 Westminster seats to just eight after five years as junior partner in the Tory-Lib Dem government.
Though many Lib Dems will defend that government’s record, the 2015 thrashing means MPs would be cautious about jumping into a coalition again.
“I always feel a bit icky when thinking [about coalition deals], because it’s not up to us,” said a third MP. “It’s up to the voters who end up with the numbers for those sorts of things to work.”
The last coalition “did us a lot of damage for doing the right thing,” said a fourth MP. The party faced a huge backlash over its U-turn on increasing tuition fees, and its support for massive government spending cuts.
Lib Dems are aware they would have to consider the compromises their activists — as well as voters — would accept as a price for power.
A fifth MP called for the party to have three really clear policies identifiable in their manifesto that would serve as “red lines” going into any negotiations, warning “otherwise we go in with a weak hand.”
One alternative — if Labour fell short of an overall majority — would be for the Lib Dems to enter a confidence and supply arrangement, where they would remain outside government, but influence government policy in return for supporting the government in budgets and votes of confidence.
Clear red water
MPs believe there is peril for the party in being seen to be preparing for Labour tie-up — particularly when many of their voters used to be Conservatives.
In 2024, the Lib Dems made gains in rural constituencies where former Conservative voters wanted to see the back of a Tory government they had once supported — and the party continues to target Conservatives voters disillusioned by Badenoch’s shift to the right.
Davey has been careful not to rule out a future pact with the Tories — keeping his fire closely trained on Farage. But some Lib Dem MPs are beginning to think a more combative approach to Labour is needed.
“The constructive opposition approach went on for far too long [under Keir Starmer],” said a sixth MP in a formerly Tory seat, who thinks the same thing is happening with Burnham who they claim has “no substance.”
That MP suggested the more emollient approach should cut both ways, and “when a Tory frontbencher says something sensible, we should work with them.”
The Tories are leaping on Davey’s stance, branding the Lib Dems “Labour enablers” who are failing to hold the government to account.
A seventh Lib Dem MP said they believe the party shouldn’t rule out working with the Tories — if they return to more moderate roots.
A Liberal Democrat spokesperson said: “The chances of a hung parliament are greater than ever, and in that scenario, experience counts.”
Cut through
Beyond the coalition talk, Davey is facing bigger questions about whether his party is cutting through at a time when U.K. politics is in flux.
“We’re not populist. We’re not going to say things for clicks,” the first MP quoted said, while admitting: “I’m not going to pretend there aren’t frustrations” about the party being heard more loudly and clearly.
The fifth MP quoted above agrees. There’s a frustration around the messaging being “all about who we’re against” rather than “standing up for our values” as the antithesis of Reform, they said.
An eighth MP said they are concerned the repeated references to Reform could work against them because “naming those you want to do down doesn’t work, it does the opposite.” It frames Farage in voters’ minds and risks a self-fulfilling prophecy that fuels his success, they said.
It is against this backdrop that questions have loomed at the Lib Dem gathering about whether Davey really is the right person to take on Farage and Burnham.
Trouble at the top
Julian Brazil, the Lib Dem leader of Devon County Council, told the BBC that “all the evidence” suggests Davey, who has led the party for six years, is no longer the right man for the job.
Most of the MPs Playbook spoke to for this piece did not want to discuss defenestrating their leader — at least not publicly.
Yet plenty of delegates are asking fairly existential questions about what the party stands for in the new era of a Burnham led-government in debates on the conference floor.
Research published by More in Common has done little to improve the mood.
Polling by the think tank found fewer people understand what the Lib Dems stand for than Restore — the hard-right party founded only a few months ago by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe. Asked to describe Davey, the two most common responses were “don’t know” and “not sure.”
The fifth MP quoted above warned there is a disconnect between the leadership and the activist base. Those around Davey are “shocked” when confronted with how unpopular he is among some members, they said.
Davey’s told the Sunday Times’ he “shares” his critics’ frustration — but blamed the party’s lack of progress on the “crazy politics we’re in.”
The Lib Dem spokesperson quoted above insists the party is in an “incredibly strong position” and has seen its “best result for a century, and achieved a record breaking streak of remarkable local election results” under Davey’s leadership.
Bobby Dean, the Lib Dems’ shadow commons leader, told POLITICO: “Ed has all the ingredients to be a really powerful messenger.” He points to sections in the More in Common polling that shows among respondents who did know Davey, he was described as “likable” and “competent.”
“Those are like good building blocks to start from,” Dean says.
The problem for Davey is that, six years into the job, plenty in his party are starting to wonder how much longer the building work can go on.