Tory strategists will put leader Kemi Badenoch front and center this fall as her personal popularity outstrips her party’s standing.
LONDON — Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative Party used to discuss who would replace her. Now they want her secret sauce.
Almost two years after taking the helm of the Tory party in the wake of its 2024 general election battering, Badenoch’s personal ratings are soaring. YouGov polling, conducted last month, found 38 percent of Brits think Badenoch is doing well as Conservative Party leader — up 23 points from last October. Some 43 percent of Brits see her as decisive, with 40 percent regarding her as competent.
But with just one in five Britons believing her Conservative Party is ready to govern again — and the party now facing a more popular adversary in No. 10 Downing Street in Andy Burnham — strategists are eyeing an autumn blitz putting Badenoch to the fore.
“Kemi is popular. We are trying to promote the rest of the shadow Cabinet to make sure that popularity rubs off on the rest of the party,” said one Badenoch staffer, granted anonymity because they were not authorized to speak on the record.
So far, it hasn’t worked.
“Badenoch’s success has still failed to translate into any meaningful movement in the polls for her party,” said Scarlett Maguire, founder of independent polling firm Merlin Strategy. “The Conservatives’ mediocre polling numbers, still worse than when they lost the 2024 election, shows the extent to which they have lost trust in their brand.”
New look conference
The party’s first big set piece moment this autumn will come when the Conservative Party meets for its annual conference in Birmingham at the beginning of October.
Badenoch’s performance at last year’s gathering marked the beginning of her transformation as party leader, and her team is hoping to repeat the trick by making this year’s conference more Badenoch-focused.
There will be less policy this year, according to one shadow minister familiar with the plans and also granted anonymity to speak freely.
“Last year was a bit scattergun. There was a bit too much policy, trying to prove we had something to say. This will be about putting Kemi forward as an alternative to Andy Burnham,” this person said.
“People see Burnham as someone who blows with the wind a bit, so [we] want to push forward the theme that Kemi is someone who doesn’t change her mind, is guided by a strong set of principles and isn’t going to change just to be popular,” the same shadow minister added.
Viral economics
Hot on the heels of party conference season will be the Burnham administration’s first budget, currently penciled in for Oct. 28.
Strategists hope it will give them a chance to promote the party’s “sound” economic vision.
Badenoch’s response to last year’s budget went “viral” — and is seen as a key moment when the public started to see the Tory leader differently.
It is Badenoch and not Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride who is “calling the shots” on economic strategy, according to another member of the shadow Cabinet.
“The economic direction of the party has to come from her, not from Mel,” they said.
Badenoch discussed how to shape a right-wing economic vision — in particular the challenge of keeping wealthy people from leaving the country — with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on Monday, according to the Times.
Though shadow ministers and advisors agree long-serving Conservatives like Stride will help give Badenoch credibility within the business community.
“We need to get to a point where we’ve got a real economic narrative. That’s what Kemi’s team are hoping will be the transformative thing,” said the same shadow Cabinet minister quoted above.
Reform, interrupted
The mood in Tory ranks has also been bolstered by a difficult few months for Reform’s Farage, who has faced questions over whether he properly declared donations.
MPs and strategists were delighted Farage spent his summer tied up in the Clacton by-election triggered by his own resignation in July, leaving Badenoch clear to be the main critic of the newly crowned Burnham.
Tory MPs gleefully claim those who defected from their party to Reform are starting to look differently at the Reform UK leader.
“The change in the Conservatives has been substantial, but there has also been a big change in Reform as well,” the shadow Cabinet member quoted above said, pointing to reported splits in Reform over how to approach Farage and and policy areas such as welfare spending.
Badenoch’s sharp remark that a pact with Reform would be “monstrous” points firmly to the Tory leader wanting to stand her ground against the threat from the right.