With most results in, the opposition left bloc leads by just three seats over an alliance that includes the far-right Sweden Democrats.
STOCKHOLM — Sweden’s high-stakes general election is heading for a tight finish in a contest to decide whether a new center-left prime minister takes over or the far right enters government for the first time.
With 95% of results now declared, the left-wing bloc of Social Democrat opposition leader Magdalena Andersson has a three-seat lead in the 349-member parliament — ahead of conservative Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s four-party right-wing alliance.
The outcome of Sunday’s vote may not be known until Wednesday. The two candidates for prime minister will now seek talks with other party leaders as they attempt to solidify their blocs into governing majorities.
An official familiar with the matter said Kristersson intends to play hardball — he is expected to try to tempt the small, liberal Center party to leave Andersson’s camp and join his side, before forcing a vote in the new parliament on whether he can stay on as prime minister. That vote is likely to be at least two weeks away.
The finely balanced contest is bittersweet for Andersson and her allies on the left. For months, her bloc had been leading comfortably in the polls, but the race tightened dramatically in the last two weeks of the campaign.
Speaking around midnight, she said the votes counted so far pointed to an “even” outcome. “But right now we are leading and if this holds up, Sweden will get a new government,” she said, to cheers from supporters packed into her party’s glitzy election night reception.
The election is a watershed moment for Sweden: An Andersson victory would restore center-left rule, while a Kristersson win could bring the far-right Sweden Democrats — a strongly anti-immigration party founded in the 1980s by neo-Nazis — into government for the first time. The result will also be watched closely elsewhere in Europe, where nationalist movements are gaining ground.
Kristersson has been governing for the past four years with support from the Sweden Democrats in parliament, but without giving them a formal role in the coalition.
He said the closeness of the result would make forming a government “complicated,” but insisted the left had failed to win a majority for its “socialist” economic program. “Where it ends remains to be seen,” he told his supporters at the Moderates’ election night party in central Stockholm. “But we are not in a hurry.”
ABBA and ice-creams
The day began with the betting markets and final polls giving Andersson’s left a narrow but consistent lead in the proportional representation election.
She won a coveted celebrity endorsement on Sunday morning from ABBA’s Benny Andersson, who took the stage at the Social Democrat headquarters to serenade her. As he played the opening chords of “Mamma Mia,” Social Democrat staffers took up the refrain, replacing the chorus line with “Magdalena.”
Wild cheering broke out among the youthful crowd drinking beer and champagne at the Social Democrat election “vigil” when two exit polls gave Andersson’s bloc a clear lead when voting closed at 8 p.m.
But a few hours later, the atmosphere darkened again as forecasts showed the race was far tighter than expected, with just a single seat separating the two blocs. Andersson’s party’s vote share fell and it will likely end up with fewer seats, even if she wins power.
By 9 a.m. on Monday, with 6,273 out of 6,626 districts declared, the Swedish Election Authority projected Andersson’s four-party bloc winning 176 seats — compared with 173 for Kristersson’s side.
Analysis by Swedish public broadcaster SVT showed only about 28,000 votes separate the two blocs — with another 200,000 expected to be counted Wednesday.
“Swedish elections are always close,” Andersson told POLITICO on Sunday as she toured the suburbs of Stockholm in her campaign bus, posing for selfies with voters and party volunteers. “When I’ve been around Sweden, a lot of people I’ve spoken to said they see things that the government has done that they like but there are also lots of things that they don’t like. And many people say to me that it’s enough now.”
Andersson accepts that a victory for her left-wing bloc won’t consign the Sweden Democrats to history, especially if the final margin is a narrow one. But she has bet big on the belief that Swedish voters will balk at handing power to a party she regards as “extremist.”
“The hate that they have spread through this election, and if they would become ministers and use their platforms as ministers to spread hate? Well, we’ll see if the Swedish people are very tempted on that,” she said.
Kristersson’s night was mixed, too. His Moderate party actually increased its vote share, while the Sweden Democrats and their firebrand leader Jimmie Åkesson fell back. But the sitting prime minister may still lose office.
He insists that the Sweden Democrats can be trusted, having worked with them to drive through hard-line policies on immigration and violent crime.
The prime minister told POLITICO on Friday that any Sweden Democrat ministers in his team would have limited room to go rogue — because he would remain in charge.
“Since I will be the person that is forming that government, and the person that will appoint every one of them, I can guarantee you that it will only be very skilled and experienced and people with good judgment that would be part of my government,” he said.
In the coalition-building efforts that determine who gets to run the country, Sweden’s smaller parties often have outsized influence. That will be true again this time if the projections of a razor-thin victory margin are borne out.
On the right, Kristersson leads a settled alliance of four parties, including the Sweden Democrats. Andersson’s path to a coalition, meanwhile, could be complicated by disagreements between the smaller parties in her bloc. Much may depend on her political skills and her ability to force through a power-sharing deal in the days and weeks ahead.