Campaigning on the risks of being sucked into the neighboring war in Ukraine is working like a spell on the elderly in Fidesz’s heartlands.
NYÍREGYHÁZA, Hungary — Hungarian Prime Viktor Orbán’s political dominance is in question for the first time in 16 years. And in his ruling party’s rural stronghold, younger voters are complaining their elderly relatives are still spellbound by him.
Capitalizing on voter frustration over record inflation, economic malaise and endemic corruption, opposition figure Péter Magyar’s campaign has turned his once small center-right Tisza party into a strong anti-Orbán bloc that now holds a national lead in the polls. His promises of building a “modern, European Hungary” are resonating — particularly with the young. But not so much with the older generation who are more resistant to Magyar’s call for change.
And that generational divide, younger voters worry, may be a decisive factor in what’s shaping up to be the country’s most consequential election since the end of Communism.
The northeastern town of Nyíregyháza, where more than half the population is over 50 years old, is a prime example of this. Long a Fidesz fortress, town residents were hesitant to talk to media or share their last names for fear of online reprisal, particularly the older generation of ruling party supporters. However, some Tisza voters were willing to speak and lament their Orbán-supporting elders — like 27-year-old actor and former Fidesz voter Benji.
Asking not to share his family name for fear of trolling on social media, “I’m rooting for Tisza, and I’m hoping there will be some change. The country is heading in the wrong direction, culturally and business-wise,” he told POLITICO. But, he added, in a conversation interrupting his short walk to the theater, “my mom is voting for Orbán because of the war. And her friends as well.”
According to Benji, Orbán’s laser-like campaigning about the risks of being sucked into the war in neighboring Ukraine, and his relentless portrayal of Magyar as a Brussels stooge, is working like a spell on the elderly in Nyíregyháza, which is just 70 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. So, too, is his argument that the country needs political stability and that his is the safest pair of hands to navigate these highly dangerous times.
It’s not just in Nyíregyháza that the generational divide spells trouble for Magyar either. Tisza faces a similar problem in other eastern and southern towns, as Fidesz’s traditional heartland has seen a near-constant exodus of the young in search of jobs and opportunities in Budapest or overseas.
This youthful flight has only buttressed Fidesz’s regional dominance over the years, and if Tisza is to oust the long-serving Hungarian leader, it will have to win at least some of these towns. And given Orbán’s incumbent advantages, dominance over government-owned airwaves and the largely obliging press controlled by his business allies, Tisza will only have a chance of unseating him if it can erode his party’s traditional vote.
Nyíregyháza’s older population is particularly tight-lipped, but Katalin, a 70-year-old semi-retired credit advisor, was happy speak. Once a loyal Fidesz voter, she’s now doing her best to cajole her peers toward Tisza, though she admits whipping up support among her peers in her hometown has been tough, particularly because of the war.
“I’m trying to convince everyone that I can to vote for the opposition. But, unfortunately, I have Fidesz voters in my circle. I can’t believe they’re not seeing what this filth is doing,” she said.
Dotted around the town are Fidesz billboards depicting Magyar as Janus-like, with half his face transformed into the EU flag. Others group together portraits of Magyar, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, implying they’re all one and the same.
“When I talk to my mom about politics, I feel like she’s brainwashed. I try to speak with her to raise her awareness and to encourage her to question things, so she could see behind what’s in the news. My mom is 64. But she and her friends are going to vote for Fidesz,” Benji similarly complained.
Tibor, an IT worker, is encountering the same with his grandmother. “She’s a big fan of the ruling party. And one of my relatives is working for Fidesz, so they are, of course, voting for Orbán,” he explained. “I have no clue why anyone would vote for Fidesz. I feel like they’re just old and glued to watching the government TV channels. They have tunnel vision.”
The last time Hungary held parliamentary elections in 2022, opposition hopes were similarly high, but that’s not how things turned out: Fidesz secured the highest vote share of any party in Hungary since the fall of Communism in 1989.
“We won a victory so big that you can see it from the moon, and you can certainly see it from Brussels,” boasted an ebullient Orbán. And in the Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg region, where Nyíregyháza is the county capital, Fidesz crushed the opposition with a 61 percent vote share — 7 percent higher than the party’s national take.
Yet, Tisza is sure this time will be different, partly because it’s fielding local star László Gajdos as its main candidate here. Hungarians cast two votes — one for the national party list and another for their preferred candidate in single-member district constituencies. Of the 199 seats in the National Assembly, 106 are filled by winners of the district races, while the remaining 93 seats are distributed among winners of the party lists. And Gajdos, a highly popular director of the Nyíregyháza Zoo, is running on both.
Even pro-Fidesz observers like Mráz Ágoston Sámuel, director of the research consultancy Nézőpont Institute, expect Tisza to win more national list seats “because opposition voters are very much concentrated in the cities, especially in Budapest. From the party list, we estimate Fidesz will get about 40 seats,” he told POLITICO. But the real fight will be in the districts, and Fidesz will still win the majority there, he said.
Tisza disagrees. Péter Lajos Szakács, one of the party’s candidates in Nyíregyháza, told POLITICO he’s confident the party will win. “In Nyíregyháza, we will win with a landslide. I’m in the second district and Gajdos is in the first. He’ll have a historic win. With me, what I can say is that right now, I’m in a tie with my opponent. But we’re working hard, so we can send him into retirement, and he can then spend time with his grandkids,” he said confidently.
But local supporters POLITICO spoke to weren’t quite so convinced the electoral struggle in Nyíregyháza is over. “I wouldn’t dare make any predictions,” cautioned Benji. However, most of them did say they thought the election outcome would be close. And that in itself suggests Fidesz isn’t likely to scale the heights it did in 2022.
Ultimately, in the districts outside Budapest, much will depend on whether Fidesz can once again mobilize its supporters and get out the vote. In the past, the party was highly efficient in doing so, but in a video of party workers gathered for “warrior training” in October, Orbán was seen fuming about the state of the party’s databases, complaining they were in bad shape.
Even so, according to 76-year-old retail store owner Júlia, soothsaying might be a mistake. Unlike most of her contemporaries, Júlia thinks Hungary desperately needs change: “I don’t want to say who I’m voting for. My main criterion is that my kids and my grandkids get to stay here. And that they can make a living, and I don’t think that will happen unless things change. Life will then get easier here,” she mused.
In the meantime, with political tensions running high, her business is being impacted. Gesturing to the empty street in downtown Nyíregyháza, she said: “Everything is so quiet. We can really feel it. People are saving up their money. They’re scared of what the future will bring.”