The Reform UK leader, facing two high-stakes local elections, is trying to rally supporters by playing the victim card.
LONDON — Nigel Farage is spending the summer railing against “the Establishment.”
The Reform UK leader faces two tougher-than-expected by-elections amid mounting scrutiny of his finances — and is now fending off criticism of his response to the killing of Ann Widdecombe, a former Conservative minister who became a high-profile Reform spokesperson.
It is just the latest row in which Farage’s party — still leading in British opinion polls as the governing Labour Party prepares to make Andy Burnham prime minister — has sought to cast itself as the victim of a rigged system.
Reform UK argues that the powers-that-be have done too little to keep its politicians and supporters safe from harm — a charge Parliament has rebutted. “It’s as though someone in the establishment wants us dead,” Farage’s deputy Richard Tice told the Times in the wake of Widdecombe’s death.
A 28-year-old man has been arrested on suspicion of Widdecombe’s murder, and police have cautioned against speculating on a live investigation. Counter-terrorism police are now leading the case, which is being treated as a possible terror incident as they consider “multiple lines of enquiry” to establish a motive.
Farage defied convention by discussing details of the case with reporters, some of which had not yet been put into the public domain by police, before the arrest, prompting Widdecombe’s friend Harvey Proctor to caution the Reform UK leader against “exploiting” the case. Farage’s allies say he has done nothing of the sort — and argued any suggestion of it was “disgraceful.”
A wild week
It’s been just a week since Farage resigned his seat in the House of Commons to fight what he billed as a “people versus the establishment” by-election in Clacton amid two House of Commons probes into financial support he’s received from wealthy businesspeople.
Rivals then blindsided Farage by calling his bluff, decrying the ring-winger’s gambit as a “gimmick.” All the main parties are now refusing to stand candidates, and Farage’s chief opponent for the August 13 by-election is expected to be the satirist known as Count Binface, who campaigns with a trash can on his head.
In a different climate, Reform might also fancy their chances of upsetting Labour in the race to succeed Burnham, who quit as mayor of Manchester to contest the Labour leadership at a national level and become prime minister.
But a long-in-the-works switch back to a preferential voting system in mayoral contests has handed plenty of material to Farage’s supporters, who say the change stacks the fight against them by reducing the chances of progressive rivals splitting the Labour vote.
The party’s chairman, Lee Anderson, told POLITICO the new system has left Reform fighting “with one hand tied behind our back.”
Taking the attention back
While Labour’s dramatic switch of leaders has dominated discourse in Westminster in recent weeks, Farage has now thrust himself firmly back into the center of events.
The parliamentary standards commissioner is investigating him over separate allegations he failed to declare support from George Cottrell — a 32-year-old who served time in an Arizona prison after admitting wire fraud — as well as a £5 million donation from Thai-based crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne.
But the Reform UK leader has now opted for a high-stakes strategy. In a punchy statement streamed across social media last week, Farage quit as an MP and blasted the entire ethics set-up aimed at limiting big-money donors in British politics.
The risk is less that he’ll lose — Farage won 46 percent of the vote in Clacton at the last general election — but that publicity from the “desperate stunt,” as outgoing PM Keir Starmer called it, will backfire.
The strategy of loudly complaining about unfair treatment may have some benefits for Farage’s outfit. Restore Britain, a splinter party led by a former Reform MP, has been eating into Farage’s vote from the further right.
“Being against the traditional politics and setting it as an us-versus-them narrative, I think, will work for them online,” said Jock McMillan, a former communications adviser to Conservative PM Rishi Sunak who now runs a consultancy. “Whether it will help for rest of the country is a different question.”
The other Manchester by-election
The prospect of an online boost may explain why Reform are trying to call foul in the second big by-election going on in Britain right now: the race to be the next Greater Manchester mayor.
In May’s local elections, Farage made significant gains across councils in Greater Manchester. But the Labour camp is optimistic about its chances for the July 30 vote to replace Burnham, with city council leader and Burnham ally Bev Craig tipped to finish ahead of Reform’s Sian Astley, even in the expectations of Labour’s political rivals.
Polling has the race between Labour and Reform close on first preference votes. But the system makes a Reform victory harder if progressive voters backing the Greens and Liberal Democrats coalesce around Craig with their second preferences.
In a sign of the challenge it faces in fighting on multiple fronts, Farage’s outfit has already had to divert some campaigning resources from Manchester to Clacton.
One Reform official, granted anonymity to discuss electoral strategy, said that winning a symbolic victory in Greater Manchester’s first preference votes — even if they lose on second preferences — is “really the goal.” The same official said: “If it was first preference we’d throw the kitchen sink at the contest, but with preferential voting it’s a tough challenge.”
Such a result — with Reform locked out by a progressive team-up — would at least allow the party to louden their cries of foul play.
Labour’s legislation on the mayoral electoral system was introduced to Parliament in July last year, long before the Manchester by-election was conceived. That hasn’t stopped Reform making the charge, with Anderson pointing out that the change wasn’t formally brought into force until June 18.
“Labour’s cynical changes to the voting system just weeks before this by-election was called reeks of an establishment stitch-up,” he told POLITICO. “They continue to use the machinery of the state against us because they are absolutely terrified of Reform.”
Others are less convinced that the Reform leader’s blasts at a rigged system will get him over the line.
“The establishment-against-Nigel line is so 2020,” said one former frontline politician who has served alongside Farage and remains well-connected with the party’s base, also granted anonymity to speak candidly. “They need to move on — it’s true, but we need to hear more about what they’re actually going to do about it.”
Andrew McDonald contributed reporting.